Portfolio Managment | Investment Research | ETFs

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Portfolio Management • Independent Research • ETF Newsletter

Free Chart of the Day

S&P Ready to Pullback?

Tue, 17 Nov 2009

The RSI has been a leading indicator when determining market pullbacks.

First Solar Buy Setup

Tue, 30 Jun 2009

FSLR setting up technically ahead of possible cap and trade bill.

The SPDRS S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has put together an amazing rally from the low in March, but is not appearing to run out of steam just below a resistance level. The January high and the 200-day moving average will prove to be significant ceilings. Support is at $89 (20-day MA) and $85-$86 area.

S&P 500

Mon, 18 May 2009

A daily chart of the S&P 500 as it sits on support at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average heading into a new week.

NASDAQ - Failing at Resistance

Thu, 07 May 2009

The NASDAQ is failing again to break through the 200-day moving average that has proven to be stiff resistance in the past. The index failed in the past as shown by the orange circles on the chart. The chart indicates a pullback is imminent for the tech-heavy index. More on this topic in the blog.

Oil Attempting Breakout

Wed, 06 May 2009

The price of oil is trading above $55 at mid-day as the commodity attempts to break out of a 6-week trading range. A close above $55/barrel, followed by a few days of confirmation is a new buy signal. Failure to breakout could send the price of oil back to the $50 area. Watch this closely.

S&P 500 at Resistance

Thu, 19 Mar 2009

The S&P 500 rallied 20% off the low of 666 and has run headon into resistance as we had correctly predicted last week. After hitting a high of 803 both today and yesterday, the index is currently trading at 787, about 2% below the breakout level. The reason 800 is so important is the price resistance from November and January along with the 50-day moving average (red line). Add in the extremely overbought RSI reading and the odds of the index breaking out in the next 2 days is not high. The first level of support will be in the 750 area, about 5% below the current price. Even though the low earlier this month may result in the bottom; a pullback in the short-term is still in the cards.

Morgan Stanley

Sun, 15 Mar 2009

Since closing at $9.20 on 11/20/08, Morgan Stanley (MS) has gained over 170% and closed out the week at the best level since late September. All the talk regarding financials has been doom and gloom and under the radar MS has been making investors willing to take a chance in November very wealthy. They are not alone; Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 90% during the same timeframe. However, ther S&P 500 is flat and the SPDRS Financial ETF (XLF) is down 13%. Don't worry if you missed the boat on MS and GS; investors willing to take a chance in the coming weeks will be rewarded handsomely in the years to come.

S&P 500 Bottoming?

Wed, 25 Feb 2009

The S&P 500 has completed the third trading session after testing the November low. After breaking it momentarily, the index has been consolidating in a volatile fashion, albeit above the November low. My thought that the market is setting up for a rally is based on the fact the S&P 500 has held the November low and even more importantly the RSI is about to flash a Crossover Buy Signal. The orange circle highlights the RSI about to cross above the 30 line, a very reliable buy signal. When it occurred in January the index ran from 827 to 877, a gain of 6%, but if you bought in a few days before the crossover (similar to today), the gain was 10%. Thus, the basis for my 10% short-term rally call.

A Financial Stock Worth Buying?

Tue, 24 Feb 2009

The chart of the financial stock above is nto only one of the best in the sector, but one of the better charts we have come across in the last few weeks. The large regional bank has its presence in banking and wealth management and has been able to avoid the majority of the credit crisis suffered by the big names.

If you would like to find out the name of this stock simply email info@pennfinancialgroup.com with Financial Stock in the subject line.

All-Time High - NJR

Fri, 13 Feb 2009

New Jersey Resources is a gas utility that has been flying under the radar and quietly hit a new ALL-TIME HIGH last week! I did mention the stock a couple months ago on Fox Business Network's "Happy Hour" and since that time the slow climb has continued. Technically the stock is now sitting on the 50-day MA (red line)and the RSI is oversold. Combine that with the 6-session losing streak heading into today and NJR could be ripe for the picking. Add in the 3% dividend and it becomes even more attractive.

Baltic Dry Index

Thu, 12 Feb 2009

The chart of the Baltic Dry Index versus the S&P 500 shows how the index is beginning to created a "rounded bottom" that often times is the sign of the end of a downtrend. This would be a good signal that the cost to ship goods around the globe are rising due to demand. The argument on the other side is that the index has fallen 90% from the highs and the recent bounce is irrelevant. I disagree because the next uptrend must start somewhere - this may not be the new uptrend, but the rounding pattern is a great beginning.

TLT

Tue, 10 Feb 2009

The long-term US bond ETF rallied today after money was pulled out of bonds for the majority of 2009. It appears TLT could be setting up for a short-term rally off support at $100 based on the RSI and big volume bounce today. Look for a possible move to $110 - $112; however, longer term we feel bonds will fall as yields rise.

Dow Testing Support

Tue, 03 Feb 2009

The Dow has been holding above the 8000 until Monday when the index closed at a new 2-month low. The trend remains bearish, but could swing to neutral if the index can jump back above 8000 this week.

Gold Hitting Resistance

Tue, 27 Jan 2009

The Gold ETF (GLD) has rallied $20/share over the last two months and is now overbought and hitting resistance at $90. Another interesting indicator on the chart is the volume, which spiked Friday as gold soared to resitance. This could be marking a short-term blowout top.

Financial ETF (XLF)

Tue, 20 Jan 2009

The SPDR Financial ETF (XLF) is flirting with breaking down below the cycle low of $8.67, set on 11/20/08. As of 10:15 AM, XLF hit an intraday low of $8.74, a loss of nearly 10% from Friday's close.

We will watch the action of XLF and the market throughout the session and if the ETF can hold and rally off the lows, look for a possible short-term long trade.

Gold ETF (GLD)

Fri, 16 Jan 2009

The price of gold took a big hit in the first week of 2009, but the pullback has the Gold ETF (GLD) back to support at the 50-day moving average. Combine that with the RSI Crossover Buy Signal and the ETF and the price of gold is setting up for a nice bounce.

To learn more about the RSI Crossove Buy Signal please check out my new book, "The Swing Trader's Bible: Strategies to Profit From Market Volatility".

Retail HOLDRS (RTH)

Wed, 14 Jan 2009

The chart of the retail ETF (RTH) and how it has now confirmed a failure at resistance, which could result in lower prices for the sector. The next significant support is in the mid-$60's.

SPDR Lehman High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

Thu, 08 Jan 2009

JNK ia an ETF that invests in high yield bonds, often referred to as "junk" bonds. This is because they are below investment grade and typically pay high interest rates. This sector has been beaten down badly this year (JNK is down over 30%), but there is now opportunity with yields very high if you feel the credit crisis is close to the end. JNK is currently yielding 13.9% and could be a nice long speculative play with potential of captial appreciation and high yield.

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